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2024, is destined to be another moment to witness history.

With the continuous surge in gold prices, commodities such as oil are also experiencing a historic rise. Not only can the average consumer at the vegetable market not comprehend it, but even the elites on Wall Street are left bewildered.

As of April 13th, the gold futures for June delivery on the New York Stock Exchange once touched $2,448.8 per ounce, and the spot gold price once reached an all-time high of $2,431.52 per ounce. Some gold shops in China even offered a greenhorn price of 737 yuan per gram.

If we extend the timeline to 2023, the price of gold has already increased by 25%. While the middle class perishes in financial management and the wealthy in trusts, only the diligent gold hoarders, often referred to as "dama" or aunties, have the last laugh.

However, what is even more paradoxical is that in April, the U.S. employment rate not only significantly exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate further declined, and the CPI rose by 3.5% during the same period.

This marks another rebound in U.S. inflation since the fourth quarter of last year. It is uncertain whether interest rates will continue to rise, but the expectation of rate cuts is virtually approaching zero.

Some investment bank bosses, who are not afraid of making bold predictions, forecast that U.S. interest rates may range from 2% to 8% or even higher in the coming years.

The conclusion is startling, but in essence, it is as good as not saying anything at all.

Judging by historical experience, gold, as a hard asset to hedge against inflation, tends to decrease in value when the U.S. dollar strengthens, which implies a cooling of inflation. Consequently, the prices of gold and other commodities would also trend downward.And now, the situation indeed is that the US economic data is surprisingly good. The Federal Reserve is not only not cutting interest rates but is also steadfastly moving forward on the path of raising rates. Gold, which is generally considered to have an inverse relationship with the US dollar, has shown a synchronized upward trend, which is seriously beyond the understanding of normal people.

So, between gold and the Federal Reserve, one must inevitably "die."

That raises the question, who is the one "swimming naked" between the US dollar and gold?

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In the recent half-century, every surge in gold has been accompanied by geopolitical tensions and significant devaluation of the US dollar.

Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, gold has lost its role as an anchor currency, and the US government, no longer restrained, has since embarked on an unlimited money-printing model.

The first surge in gold occurred in the 1970s and 1980s.

In 1973, the outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War led Saudi Arabia, leading OPEC, to not only embargo oil to the West in support of Egypt and Syria but also to quadruple the price of oil. The prices of gold and other commodities also began to rise steadily.

A series of basic operations directly triggered collective inflation in the Western world, with the US inflation rate exceeding 12%, the unemployment rate rising to 9%, and the economic growth rate was a negative 0.5%.

However, that was not the end. After Saudi Arabia ended its influence, Iran then experienced the Islamic Revolution.Due to the high revolutionary fervor of the masses, Iran completely shut down its oil export channels from the end of 1978 to March 1979, with a daily oil shortfall of 5 million barrels, accounting for about one-tenth of the world's total consumption.

The international crude oil price also rose from $13.2 per barrel in November 1978 to $20.8 per barrel in February 1979, and the international gold price also set a historical high of $665 per ounce in January 1980.

It was under these circumstances that in 1983, the Federal Reserve initiated the first round of aggressive interest rate hikes and maintained them for 18 months, raising the benchmark interest rate from 8.5% to 11.5%, which directly led to the economic collapse of countries such as Mexico and Argentina.

In just two years, the total debt of Latin American countries soared to $103.5 billion, and their annual fiscal revenue was not enough to cover the interest of American banks, leading to a decade-long economic stagnation, from which they barely emerged from the debt shadow until 2003.

However, the United States made a full recovery, with economic growth rates returning to over 6% (in 1984), and significant reductions in inflation and unemployment, while gold and oil prices also returned to a rational range.

It took another 24 years for gold to enter its second major bull market.

Friends who have experienced the 2008 global financial storm may be aware that the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was actually a systemic financial issue. Wall Street giants such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, New Century Financial, and Lehman Brothers all faced bankruptcy and liquidation, but in the end, only Lehman Brothers was pulled out to be the scapegoat.

There was also the $700 billion plan introduced by the Bush administration, which essentially exported inflation globally. Central banks around the world followed suit, the dollar entered a zero-interest-rate era, and the euro and yen even played with negative interest rates.

By the end of 2009, the Greek debt crisis erupted, dealing a heavy blow not only to the Eurozone but also dragging the global financial market into the water.

It was against the backdrop of currency devaluation and collective large-scale quantitative easing by countries that Wall Street elites, together with market aunties, collectively speculated on gold, causing the gold price to soar from $730 in October 2008 to $1,825 in 2011. Oil prices also broke through the $100 mark, peaking at over $140 per barrel at their highest.Russia also profited immensely from this wave, accumulating the confidence to overturn the table.

The third major gold bull market is relatively close to us.

In 2020. Due to the United States' long-term dominance in infection and death cases, the economy and employment faced a systemic collapse.

To address the consumption issue, Trump and Biden, the two old men, directly initiated a helicopter money drop, successively printing an additional 5 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to creating three Russias out of thin air, and printing 23% of the annual GDP.

It is not an exaggeration to say that, relying solely on money printing, the Federal Reserve has rescued the economy from the ICU, and such an impressive operation could only be carried out by Americans.

However, the problem is that the newly printed dollars did not enter the real economy but all rushed into the "casino." The NASDAQ, leading the global stock market, took off, and everyone was betting on the surge in this round of assets.

The result can be imagined, as the global currency continuously devalued, the prices of commodities began to rise, and the price of gold also set a historical new record of $2,075 per ounce in August 2020.

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The law of history tells us that there is nothing good about the surge in gold prices, and the main reason behind it is still the negative yield of the US dollar, with currencies of various countries also entering a continuous devaluation mode.

Therefore, this round of gold price increase is obviously illogical.It should be noted that currently, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is roughly between 5.25% and 5.5%. With an inflation rate of around 3%, U.S. Treasury bonds still offer a yield of over 2%.

Clearly, either gold or the U.S. dollar is being dishonest.

Everyone is aware that the United States' current debt level has reached $34 trillion. With an interest rate of 5%, this means that the annual interest payments alone amount to $1.7 trillion, which is equivalent to losing half a year's fiscal revenue right off the bat.

If the interest rate were to rise to 8%, the U.S. Treasury would essentially be done for the day after paying the interest, with no extra funds left to support other economic construction projects.

Furthermore, according to the latest data, the profit margin of small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States is about 3.7%. Currently, they can only borrow new debt to repay old debt. If the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates in the long term, it is highly likely that these businesses will go under.

In 2023, the economic growth rate of the United States is estimated to be around 2.5%, while the growth of debt is over 5%. It's like climbing a mountain with pots and pans, and also carrying a 5-liter water bucket in both hands; even if you were to equip it with super-strong legs, it would not be able to handle a debt of this magnitude.

For the United States, there are only two solutions: one is a significant devaluation of the U.S. dollar, using magic to defeat magic; the other is to physically punish the creditors, using real damage to default on all debts.

Regardless of which option is chosen, gold is clearly a more stable choice than the U.S. dollar.

Of course, the major economies around the world operate on a debt-driven model, which means they use borrowing to stimulate economic growth and consumption. For example, when a central bank issues $100, it can be multiplied to $1,000 by commercial banks, with the debt scale increasing exponentially.

When the economy is doing well, growth can offset inflation; when the economy is heading downward, it results in countless bad debts and non-performing loans.For nations burdened with massive debts, the most effective path to resolving their issues is through currency devaluation, and a substantial one at that. It's not just the United States; over the past decade, Europe, Japan, and the East have been quietly printing money. Japan has reached 110 trillion yen, while the East has surpassed 34 trillion RMB, with the only difference being who has a lower limit.

The US dollar has essentially entered a Ponzi scheme model. On one hand, they dangle trade quotas as bait, and on the other, they present dazzling data to deceive capital into inflating the US stock market. No one can short the US before the US can short itself.

Their goal is to reap as much overseas wealth as possible before the dollar collapses. Following the Federal Reserve's usual tactics, they first puncture other countries' bubbles by raising interest rates, and then enter the next cycle of monetary easing, repeatedly harvesting global wealth. As long as someone is willing to accept dollars, this cycle of profiting from arbitrage can continue.

The 700 billion from 2008 was largely absorbed by the East, which is why during those years, the East's import and export trade and economic data experienced double-digit explosive growth.

But now the problem is that a large influx of dollars cannot be exported outward because no one is willing to take on the vast amount of dollars, nor do they want to share the pain of currency over-issuance with Americans. This has led to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to over 5%, yet still failing to resolve domestic inflation.

Central banks of various countries are not fools; how could they be harvested and still wait for the dollar to devalue?

The common operation is to sell dollars and hoard gold, which is like trying to hold in a urine contest while still pouring water into the Americans' cups. The target countries haven't collapsed, but the US itself is about to burst.

The rise in gold and commodity prices in this round can also be anticipated as the future rampant money printing by the dollar. Within one to six months, the world will face the arrival of the inflationary era.The reason is quite simple: the credit currency system, led by the US dollar, is severely in arrears, and the over-issuance of currency has reached a critical point. It is not entirely impossible for everyone to return to the gold standard era.

However, it should be noted that general inflation is beneficial to the socio-economic system, but hyperinflation represents the destruction of wealth and the disappearance of the middle class. Barring any surprises, 2024 is likely to witness another unexpected event.